January 2026 data confirm a disinflationary pivot that is reshaping Angola’s monetary and fiscal outlook. Annual CPI fell to 14.56% — its softest reading since August 2023 — while the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) delivered its third consecutive rate cut, bringing the taxa basica to 17.5%. These twin signals mark the clearest evidence yet that Luanda’s post-pandemic stabilization program is gaining traction, even as oil production struggles to hold above 1 million barrels per day.
Macro Snapshot
Nominal GDP reached $115.2 billion in 2024 (IMF Article IV, December 2025), cementing Angola’s position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy. Real growth accelerated to an estimated 4.4% in 2024, the strongest expansion since 2014, before the Fund revised its 2025 forecast down to 1.9% from the 2.1% projected in the October World Economic Outlook. Per capita income stands at approximately $3,034 — modest by global standards, but a recovery from the $2,400 trough of 2020.
The growth deceleration reflects two headwinds: softer Brent prices compressing oil revenues and a temporary production dip below 1 million bpd in mid-2025 before new deepwater volumes came online. Non-oil sectors — particularly agriculture, construction, and financial services — continue to outperform, contributing over 70% of GDP for the first time in the post-independence era.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
The inflation trajectory is the single most important variable for fixed-income investors. From a peak above 30% in mid-2024, annual CPI has decelerated for nine consecutive months. January 2026’s monthly reading of 0.68% was the lowest since March 2015, suggesting that the base effects that drove headline numbers higher through 2024 have fully unwound.
The BNA’s Comite de Politica Monetaria (CPM) responded by cutting the benchmark rate 100 basis points to 17.5% at its January 13-14 meeting, following 50bps reductions in both September and November 2025. The standing lending facility now sits at 19.5% and the deposit facility at 16.5%. The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a further 150bps of easing through the remainder of 2026, which would bring the policy rate to 16.0% by year-end — the lowest since early 2022. For analysis of BNA’s forward guidance and rate path probabilities, see our BNA Monetary Policy tracker.
Oil Sector
Angola’s upstream sector remains the structural backbone of the economy despite a two-decade production decline from the 2008 peak of 1.9 million bpd. Current output averages approximately 1.03 million bpd (2025), with TotalEnergies operating 35-40% of gross production through deepwater blocks. The country exited OPEC in January 2024 to pursue uncapped production optimization, but natural field decline continues to outpace new project ramp-ups. CLOV Phase 3 and the Begonia development added roughly 60,000 bpd from July 2025, partially offsetting mature field losses. Oil accounts for 90-95% of merchandise exports and approximately 50-60% of fiscal revenue (receitas petroliferas). Full production data and operator breakdowns are available on the Oil & Gas page.
Debt and Fiscal Position
Total public debt stood at $61.93 billion as of Q2 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 59.9% (2024 IMF estimate) — a dramatic improvement from the 119.1% peak in 2020. External debt accounts for $45.57 billion, dominated by commercial borrowing (42.18%), multilateral facilities (19.81%), and Eurobonds (19.67%). Angola’s bilateral obligations to China — estimated at $17-21 billion, largely secured against oil shipments — remain the most opaque component of the debt stock. The IMF classifies Angola at high risk of debt distress, principally due to revenue concentration in hydrocarbons and currency mismatch on external liabilities. For maturity schedules and Eurobond spread analysis, see Public Debt.
Reserves and External Position
Gross international reserves stood at $15.3 billion as of late 2025, providing approximately five months of import cover. The BNA has maintained a managed float for the kwanza since the 2019 liberalization, conducting regular FX auctions to smooth volatility. The current account balance remains sensitive to Brent pricing: the IMF estimates that every $10/bbl decline in oil prices erodes the current account by approximately 3-4% of GDP.
Labour Market
Official unemployment (desemprego) stands at 14.0%, though the figure understates the challenge: youth unemployment exceeds 40%, and informal employment accounts for an estimated 70-80% of total labor activity. The Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (PND 2023-2027) targets formal job creation through Special Economic Zones and agricultural value chain development, but progress remains slow relative to the roughly 800,000 new labor market entrants annually.
Structural Composition
The economy’s sectoral balance has shifted materially over the past decade. Services account for 41.1% of GDP, industry (including oil) 34.6%, and agriculture 22.1% (World Bank, 2024). The oil share of GDP has fallen from approximately 50% in 2014 to 28% today, though this partly reflects the kwanza depreciation inflating non-oil nominal GDP rather than genuine real-economy diversification. True diversification — measured by export composition rather than GDP shares — remains limited: crude oil and refined products still constitute over 90% of merchandise exports.
Forward-Looking Assessment
The consensus view for 2026-2027 hinges on three variables: Brent oil prices sustaining above $70/bbl, continued disinflation enabling further BNA easing, and execution on the ProPriv privatization pipeline (including the landmark Sonangol partial IPO). If all three conditions hold, real GDP growth could recover to 2.5-3.0% by 2027. Downside risks include a global recession suppressing oil demand, renewed kwanza volatility, and the approaching Eurobond maturity wall in 2028-2029. For investment opportunities and sector-specific analysis, explore the full Angola X intelligence platform.