Only 22,970 shares changed hands across the entire 2024 calendar year – a 95.5% collapse in trading volume year-on-year and a stark reminder that being first to market does not guarantee perpetual liquidity. Banco Angolano de Investimentos (BAI), the stock that inaugurated the Mercado de Bolsa de Acoes (MBA) segment of BODIVA in June 2022, today trades at approximately Kz 100,500 per share, a gain of roughly 5.79% from its last reference price, but the headline appreciation since listing obscures a far more complex story about market microstructure, free-float constraints, and the growing pains of sub-Saharan Africa’s newest equity exchange.

The IPO That Opened a Market

When BAI priced its oferta publica inicial on 24 June 2022, it sold a 10% stake to the public at approximately Kz 20,640 per share, raising AOA 40.1 billion (roughly USD 43.8 million at prevailing rates). The significance was less about the quantum of capital and more about the precedent: Angola finally had a listed equity instrument after years of BODIVA operating exclusively as a government bond auction platform.

BAI was founded in 1997 and had built itself into Angola’s largest private bank by assets, with a nationwide branch network and deep relationships across the oil-dependent economy. The selection of BAI as the maiden listing was deliberate. Regulators at the Comissao do Mercado de Capitais (CMC) needed a name with institutional credibility, audited financials, and enough scale to absorb retail and institutional demand without destabilising the share register.

The IPO allocation process was managed through BODIVA’s central securities depository, the CEVAMA, requiring every subscriber to open a conta de custodia (custody account). This administrative prerequisite served a dual purpose: it channelled capital into the formal financial system and built the investor registry that BODIVA would need for subsequent listings.

Price Performance: The Illusion of Returns

From the IPO price of Kz 20,640 to the current level near Kz 100,500, BAI shares have nominally appreciated by roughly 387%. On paper, early subscribers have nearly quintupled their money. But that figure demands context.

Angola’s kwanza lost significant purchasing power over the same period. The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) allowed a managed depreciation of the kwanza from roughly AOA 420/USD at mid-2022 to approximately AOA 920/USD by early 2026. Inflation, tracked by the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE), ran between 13% and 22% annually across that window. Adjusted for currency erosion and consumer price inflation, real returns are substantially lower than the nominal headline suggests – a dynamic that the real return calculator on this platform quantifies in detail.

The share price trajectory has also been anything but linear. BAI’s stock is thinly traded, and the absence of continuous market-making means prices can gap between sessions. On any given trading day, the bid-ask spread can represent a material percentage of the share price, making it difficult for institutional investors to build or exit positions without moving the market.

The Liquidity Problem

The 2024 trading statistics lay bare the challenge. With only 22,970 shares traded across the year, average daily volume – assuming roughly 250 trading sessions – was fewer than 92 shares per day. Even in the context of a nascent frontier market, this is extraordinarily thin.

Several structural factors explain the illiquidity. First, BAI floated only 10% of its equity, one of the smallest free floats on any African exchange. The remaining 90% is held by long-term strategic shareholders with no near-term incentive to sell. Second, Angola lacks the ecosystem of local pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance asset managers that typically provide secondary-market depth. Third, retail participation remains constrained by low financial literacy and limited brokerage infrastructure outside Luanda. The number of custody accounts registered at CEVAMA stood at 58,389 as of late 2024, a figure that, while growing, represents a fraction of Angola’s 35-million population.

The 95.5% drop in volume from 2023 to 2024 likely reflects a rotation of speculative interest toward newer, more actively promoted IPOs – notably ENSA in October 2024 and BODIVA’s own self-listing the following month. BAI, as the incumbent, simply lost the novelty premium.

Institutional Profile

BAI operates as a universal bank under Angolan banking law, offering corporate lending, trade finance, retail deposits, treasury operations, and increasingly, digital banking services. Its balance sheet is heavily exposed to the sovereign – like most Angolan banks – through large holdings of Obrigacoes do Tesouro (OTs) and Bilhetes do Tesouro (BTs), instruments auctioned weekly through BODIVA’s treasury market segments. Movements in BNA monetary policy therefore flow directly into BAI’s net interest margin and mark-to-market book.

The bank’s loan portfolio is concentrated in the oil and gas sector and associated services, mirroring the broader structure of the Angolan economy. Efforts to diversify into agriculture, fisheries, and SME lending align with the government’s Plano de Desenvolvimento Nacional (PDN 2023-2027), but the credit risk profile of non-oil borrowers remains a concern given weak contract enforcement and limited collateral registries.

Governance and Ownership

BAI’s shareholder register has historically been opaque, a characteristic common to Angolan corporates prior to the transparency reforms that accompanied the PROPRIV privatisation programme. The 10% public float is held through CEVAMA by a combination of retail investors and a handful of institutional accounts. The controlling shareholders include a consortium of Angolan private investors with longstanding ties to the banking sector.

The listing on BODIVA imposed higher disclosure standards on BAI, including semi-annual financial reporting and material event notifications via the exchange’s bulletin system. However, the depth and timeliness of disclosure remain below the standards that international portfolio investors expect, and the absence of sell-side analyst coverage means there is effectively no independent price discovery mechanism beyond the order book itself.

Outlook and Catalysts

BAI’s near-term share price trajectory depends on three variables. First, whether BODIVA introduces a formal market-making framework – a step that regulators have discussed but not yet implemented – which could narrow spreads and improve daily volumes. Second, whether BAI increases its free float through a secondary offering, which would both raise capital and deepen the tradable share base. Third, the macroeconomic backdrop: if the BNA continues its tightening cycle and real interest rates remain elevated, fixed-income instruments will continue to compete aggressively with equities for investor allocations, particularly given the attractive yields available on short-dated government paper.

For international investors, the more fundamental question is access. Angola’s capital account restrictions, the absence of a custodian network integrated with Euroclear or Clearstream, and the lack of a qualified foreign investor regime mean that direct equity ownership remains effectively limited to domestic participants. Until these structural barriers are addressed, BAI’s significance will be primarily symbolic – the stock that proved an Angolan equity market was possible, even as the market it pioneered searches for the depth and breadth to sustain itself.