Angola’s capital markets operate at the intersection of commodity cycles, monetary policy experimentation, and frontier-market structural reform. Navigating that intersection demands research built on local data, institutional context, and disciplined macro frameworks. The Pesquisa e Inteligencia (Research & Intelligence) hub consolidates every analytical product published by the Angola X Research Team into a single, searchable resource for portfolio managers, development-finance professionals, and corporate strategists operating in or allocating to Angola.
Scope of Coverage
The research programme spans four interconnected pillars. First, the macroeconomic layer tracks GDP (estimated at $115.2 billion in 2025), consumer-price dynamics running at 15.7% year-on-year, and the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) policy rate currently set at 17.5%. Second, the capital-markets layer covers the five companies listed on the Bolsa de Divida e Valores de Angola (BODIVA), whose combined market capitalisation stands near $3.37 billion, alongside the government bond programme that dominates secondary trading. Third, the foreign-exchange layer monitors the kwanza, most recently quoted at 914.60 AOA per US dollar, and its interplay with oil-revenue inflows. Fourth, the geopolitical layer examines how OPEC+ decisions, Chinese credit diplomacy, and the evolving US-Angola corridor feed back into asset prices.
Periodic Publications
The team publishes on a structured cadence designed to match institutional workflow. The Weekly Market Review delivers a concise five-day recap covering BODIVA equity moves, treasury-bond auction outcomes, BNA open-market operations, and any regulatory announcements from the Comissao do Mercado de Capitais (CMC). Each Monthly Market Report aggregates those weekly signals into a broader narrative, incorporating fresh inflation prints from the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE) and updated fiscal data from the Ministry of Finance. The Quarterly Outlook extends the horizon to 90 days, combining scenario analysis on oil prices (Brent crude currently near $74.50 per barrel) with BNA rate-path modelling and GDP nowcasting. Finally, the Annual Review delivers a comprehensive year-in-review with performance attribution, policy scorecards, and forward-looking allocation frameworks.
Calendars and Event Tracking
Timing is critical in a market where a single BNA rate decision or OPEC+ communique can shift the kwanza by several percentage points in a week. The Economic Calendar catalogues every scheduled data release, policy meeting, budget milestone, and multilateral review relevant to Angola. Complementary calendars for earnings and dividends track corporate reporting cycles on BODIVA, where BAI shares last traded near Kz 100,500 and BFA near Kz 118,000.
Deep Dives and Thematic Research
Beyond periodic publications, the team produces long-form relatorios aprofundados (deep-dive reports) on structural themes. These sit in the Deep Dives section and cover subjects such as banking-sector consolidation, the oil-services value chain, telecoms privatisation pipelines, and the fixed-income opportunity set in both kwanza-denominated and dollar-indexed Angolan government bonds. The 2024 trading year recorded 10,328 transactions on BODIVA, a figure that deep-dive analysis contextualises within broader liquidity and market-microstructure trends.
Geopolitical Analysis
Angola’s credit ratings (S&P B-, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-) reflect sovereign risk that is inseparable from geopolitics. The Geopolitics section houses thematic reports on oil-market power dynamics, the China-Angola debt corridor, US commercial engagement, the legacy Portuguese economic relationship, and Angola’s positioning as a regional power in Southern and Central Africa. Each report connects diplomatic developments to concrete investment implications, whether for bond spreads, equity risk premia, or FX volatility.
Research Methodology
All analysis rests on primary data sourced directly from the BNA, INE, CMC, and BODIVA, supplemented by field interviews and proprietary models. Where consensus estimates exist, the team states its own forecasts explicitly. The current baseline anticipates GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025, conditioned on a Brent-price band of $70-80 per barrel and continued fiscal consolidation under the Orcamento Geral do Estado (national budget). Scenario tables in each publication present upside and downside cases with identified trigger events, enabling readers to stress-test their own positions against clearly stated assumptions.
How to Use This Hub
Navigate by publication type using the links above, or use the site-wide search to locate analysis on a specific topic. Premium subscribers receive publications at the point of release; free-tier users gain access to selected highlights and summary tables after an embargo period. For real-time data underlying the research, consult the Markets and Economy dashboards.