The Revisao Anual is the flagship publication of the Angola X Research Team – a comprehensive assessment of Angola’s economy, capital markets, and geopolitical positioning over the preceding twelve months, paired with a forward-looking framework for the year ahead. Published in late January or early February, it serves as the definitive reference document for annual investment-committee reviews, country-strategy updates, and development-finance programming cycles.
Purpose and Audience
Frontier-market allocation decisions are typically made on an annual or semi-annual basis. The annual review is structured to support that cadence, providing the depth of analysis needed to justify country-weight adjustments, new-mandate proposals, or risk-limit recalibrations. The primary audience includes sovereign-credit analysts, emerging-market portfolio managers, multilateral development institutions, and corporate boards evaluating Angolan expansion or divestment.
Report Architecture
The annual review spans ten chapters, each designed to function as a standalone briefing while also contributing to the cumulative narrative.
Chapter 1 – Year in Numbers. A statistical dashboard summarising the year’s key metrics: GDP (estimated at $115.2 billion), inflation trajectory (currently 15.7% year-on-year), the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) policy rate path (ending the most recent year at 17.5%), kwanza performance against the US dollar (914.60 AOA/USD at last observation), oil production volumes, and fiscal balance. Each figure is presented alongside the prior year’s equivalent and the deviation from the forecast published in the preceding annual review.
Chapter 2 – Macroeconomic Performance. An analytical narrative covering GDP growth (2025 forecast: 1.9%), its decomposition by sector (oil versus non-oil), inflation dynamics, and the interplay between fiscal policy and the external accounts. The chapter evaluates whether the Orcamento Geral do Estado (national budget) was executed within the parameters set at the start of the fiscal year and assesses the quality of growth – specifically, whether non-oil sectors showed genuine diversification or merely reflected base effects.
Chapter 3 – Monetary Policy Scorecard. A retrospective grading of BNA decisions over the year, benchmarked against the team’s own forecasts and against a Taylor-rule counterfactual. The chapter examines the real policy rate, the evolution of the BNA’s transmission mechanism, and the effectiveness of open-market operations in steering interbank rates within the policy corridor.
Chapter 4 – Foreign Exchange. A full-year kwanza review covering official-rate dynamics, parallel-market evolution, BNA intervention patterns, and the structural determinants of FX supply (oil receipts, non-oil exports, diaspora remittances, FDI). The chapter quantifies the kwanza’s real effective exchange rate and assesses whether the currency ended the year overvalued, undervalued, or near fair value relative to fundamentals.
Chapter 5 – Equity Markets. Performance attribution for each of the five companies listed on the Bolsa de Divida e Valores de Angola (BODIVA). BAI (near Kz 100,500) and BFA (near Kz 118,000) anchor the discussion, with total-return calculations incorporating price changes and dividend payments. BODIVA recorded 10,328 transactions in 2024, and the chapter analyses how liquidity conditions evolved through the year. The combined equity market capitalisation of approximately $3.37 billion is benchmarked against sub-Saharan African peers to contextualise Angola’s standing.
Chapter 6 – Fixed Income. A review of the government’s domestic borrowing programme, covering OTNR and OTX issuance volumes, clearing yields, and investor participation patterns. The chapter charts yield-curve movements across 2-year to 10-year tenors, analyses duration risk, and evaluates the performance of a hypothetical buy-and-hold bond portfolio against the BNA rate. External-debt developments – Eurobond spread movements, bilateral renegotiations, and any IMF disbursements – receive separate treatment.
Chapter 7 – Sovereign Credit. An independent assessment of Angola’s creditworthiness, referencing but not deferring to the agency ratings (S&P B-, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-). The chapter presents the team’s own scorecard covering fiscal sustainability, external vulnerability, institutional quality, and political stability. Upward and downward migration triggers are identified, and a probability-weighted rating trajectory is projected for the coming 12-18 months.
Chapter 8 – Regulatory and Structural Reform. A progress report on Angola’s reform agenda, covering privatisation execution (PROPRIV), capital-market regulation development, anti-money-laundering compliance (FATF grey-list status), tax modernisation, and business-environment improvements. The chapter maps reform milestones against the timelines originally set by the government and identifies where slippage has occurred.
Chapter 9 – Geopolitical Review. A synthesis of the year’s geopolitical developments and their market implications, covering OPEC+ dynamics, Chinese debt and investment flows, US commercial engagement, the EU-Angola energy corridor, and regional security. The chapter draws on the thematic reports published in the Geopolitics section throughout the year.
Chapter 10 – Year-Ahead Framework. The final chapter sets out the research team’s base-case, upside, and downside scenarios for the coming year, with explicit assumptions for oil price, BNA rate, kwanza range, and GDP growth. Asset-class return expectations are stated for equities, domestic fixed income, and the kwanza, enabling subscribers to benchmark their own projections against a structured framework.
Performance Accountability
Each annual review opens with a scorecard grading the accuracy of the prior edition’s forecasts. The team reports its hit rate on directional calls, the magnitude of forecast errors, and any systematic biases identified. This transparency is central to the research programme’s credibility and allows subscribers to calibrate confidence intervals around the new year’s projections.
Distribution
The full annual review is exclusive to premium subscribers and is delivered as a PDF report with an accompanying data workbook. Free-tier users receive a condensed executive summary and the year-ahead scenario table. All editions are archived in the Latest Research feed.