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Home Deep Dive Research Reports Telecoms Sector Deep Dive 2026

Telecoms Sector Deep Dive 2026

Telecoms Sector Deep Dive 2026 — original research from Angola X.

Telecommunications is the most dynamic non-oil sector in Angola’s $115.2 billion economy, the primary vector for financial inclusion, and the industry most likely to produce the next major listing on BODIVA. With mobile penetration approaching 45%, a population of 36 million that is among the youngest on the continent (median age approximately 16 years), and a government that has explicitly prioritized digital transformation under the Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (PND), the sector combines growth fundamentals, regulatory catalysts, and an investable pipeline that no other Angolan industry currently matches. This analysis profiles the major operators, assesses the competitive landscape, evaluates the mobile money opportunity, and examines the implications of a potential Unitel IPO.

Market Overview

Angola’s telecommunications sector generated estimated revenues of approximately $2.5–3.0 billion in 2025, representing roughly 2.5% of GDP. Mobile services account for the vast majority of industry revenue, with fixed-line penetration negligible outside Luanda and a handful of provincial capitals. The sector is regulated by the Instituto Angolano das Comunicacoes (INACOM), which issues operating licenses, manages spectrum allocation, and oversees interconnection pricing.

Three operators dominate the mobile market: Unitel, Africell (formerly Movicel), and MSTelcom (a more recent entrant focused on data and enterprise services). The competitive structure has been effectively a duopoly between Unitel and Africell for most of the market’s history, with Unitel holding the dominant position in subscriber count, geographic coverage, and brand recognition.

Unitel: The Dominant Franchise

Unitel S.A. is Angola’s largest mobile network operator, with an estimated 14–16 million subscribers as of 2025. Founded in 2001 as a joint venture between Sonangol, PT Ventures (now part of Altice), and private Angolan investors, Unitel built the country’s first nationwide GSM network and has since expanded into 3G, 4G, and early 5G trial coverage in Luanda.

Unitel’s financial profile is characterized by high revenue concentration and strong margins. Annual revenues are estimated at $1.0–1.2 billion, with EBITDA margins in the range of 55–65%, which places Unitel among the most profitable mobile operators in sub-Saharan Africa by margin. The company’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is estimated at $5.50–7.00 per month, depressed by the large prepaid base but elevated by growing data consumption among urban subscribers.

The company’s corporate governance has been reshaped by the government’s anti-corruption campaign. The state seized the 25% shareholding previously held by Isabel dos Santos in 2020, consolidating government-aligned ownership above 75%. This ownership clarity was a prerequisite for any public listing, and the resolution has placed Unitel on the PROPRIV pipeline as one of the highest-priority privatization candidates.

A Unitel IPO would be transformative for BODIVA. At an estimated enterprise valuation of $2.5–4.0 billion, a 20–30% partial listing would represent the largest equity offering in Angolan capital markets history. The market impact assessment suggests that a Unitel listing could double BODIVA’s equity market capitalization from the current $3.37 billion and dramatically improve daily trading liquidity.

Africell Angola

Africell acquired the assets and operations of the former Movicel (originally a state-owned operator) and rebranded the network under the Africell banner, leveraging its pan-African operational experience from Sierra Leone, the DRC, Uganda, and The Gambia. The acquisition was completed as part of the PROPRIV program and represented one of the first major privatizations in the telecom sector.

Africell Angola operates with an estimated 6–8 million subscribers, making it the clear number-two player behind Unitel. The company’s competitive strategy has centered on aggressive pricing, particularly for data packages, and network quality improvements in Luanda and secondary cities including Huambo, Benguela, and Lubango. Africell has invested heavily in 4G LTE expansion and has secured spectrum allocations that position it for 5G deployment when the regulator authorizes commercial launches.

The competitive tension between Unitel and Africell is the primary driver of sector investment. Unitel’s dominance is being challenged for the first time by an operator with international backing, operational expertise, and a willingness to compete on price. For consumers, this competition has driven data prices down by an estimated 20–30% since Africell’s rebranding, while voice and SMS pricing has remained relatively stable.

MSTelcom and the Enterprise Segment

MSTelcom (a subsidiary of Angola Cables, which is in turn linked to Sonangol) operates primarily in the enterprise and wholesale segments rather than mass-market consumer mobile. The company manages critical infrastructure including a portion of Angola’s international fiber-optic connectivity through the South Atlantic Cable System (SACS) and the West Africa Cable System (WACS).

MSTelcom’s strategic importance exceeds its revenue contribution. The company controls submarine cable landing points and metropolitan fiber networks that all other operators depend on for international bandwidth. As Angola’s data consumption grows — driven by mobile video, social media, and enterprise cloud migration — MSTelcom’s infrastructure assets become increasingly valuable. A potential listing or partial sale of MSTelcom has been discussed within the PROPRIV framework, though it is considered lower priority than Unitel.

The enterprise segment, including fixed broadband for corporate clients, managed IT services, and data center hosting, is growing at approximately 15–20% annually as the banking sector and government agencies digitize operations. Angola currently has limited domestic data center capacity, creating an opportunity for infrastructure investment that MSTelcom and potential new entrants are positioning to capture.

Mobile Money: The Untapped Opportunity

Perhaps the single largest growth vector in Angolan telecoms is dinheiro movel (mobile money). Despite the success of mobile money platforms in East Africa (M-Pesa in Kenya, MTN MoMo in Uganda) and West Africa (Orange Money in Senegal), Angola’s mobile money ecosystem remains underdeveloped. Unitel operates Unitel Money, and Africell has launched its own wallet service, but transaction volumes and active user rates remain far below the levels achieved in peer markets.

The barriers are partly structural: Angola’s banking system is more developed than those of countries where mobile money first took off, and the BNA has been cautious about allowing non-bank entities to hold customer deposits. The regulatory framework for electronic money institutions (Instituicoes de Moeda Electronica) was formalized in 2021, and the BNA’s Estrategia Nacional de Inclusao Financeira (ENIF) explicitly targets mobile money as a vehicle for extending financial services to the estimated 60% of the adult population that remains financially excluded.

The investment case for mobile money in Angola rests on the rural-urban gap. While banking penetration in Luanda approaches 40%, it falls below 10% in most rural provinces. Mobile network coverage — which reaches approximately 70–75% of the population — far exceeds bank branch networks, creating a natural distribution channel. If mobile money adoption reaches the 25–30% penetration rate seen in comparably large African markets, the transaction volume could support a business worth $300–500 million in annual gross transaction value within five years.

Digital Infrastructure Investment

The government has identified digital infrastructure as a priority under its Angola Digital 2025 program and successor strategies. Key initiatives include:

  • National fiber backbone: The government-funded ANGOSAT and terrestrial fiber projects aim to extend broadband connectivity to all 18 provincial capitals, reducing dependence on satellite links for inter-provincial communication.
  • Spectrum allocation: INACOM has auctioned additional 700 MHz and 2600 MHz spectrum bands, enabling 4G expansion into rural areas and positioning the market for eventual 5G authorization.
  • Government digitization: The Balcao Unico de Empreendedorismo (one-stop business registration) and e-governance platforms generate demand for enterprise connectivity and cloud services.

These initiatives create demand tailwinds for all operators but particularly benefit infrastructure providers like MSTelcom and tower companies. The technology investment opportunity in Angola is concentrated in telecoms infrastructure, and the sector is likely to attract both foreign direct investment and portfolio capital as the PROPRIV listings proceed.

Competitive Risks and Regulatory Outlook

The primary risks facing telecom investors in Angola are regulatory intervention, FX exposure, and pricing competition.

Regulatory risk centers on INACOM’s authority to impose universal service obligations, regulate interconnection rates, and allocate spectrum. A decision to license a fourth mobile operator — discussed periodically — would dilute market shares and compress margins, though the market’s current structure (one dominant, one challenger, one niche) is typical for markets of Angola’s income level.

FX exposure is material because operators purchase network equipment (predominantly from Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia) in dollars or euros, while earning revenue in kwanza. The USD/AOA rate directly affects capital expenditure costs and the dollar-equivalent profitability of the sector. Unitel’s historically high margins provide a buffer, but sustained depreciation beyond 10% per year would pressure returns.

Pricing competition from Africell’s aggressive data packages is compressing Unitel’s blended ARPU. The shift from voice to data revenue is a global telecom trend, but in Angola it is occurring against a backdrop of currency weakness and inflation at 15.7%, which limits consumers’ ability to increase nominal spending on telecoms services.

Investment Thesis

The Angolan telecoms sector offers a rare combination in frontier markets: a dominant operator with strong cash generation (Unitel), a credible pathway to public listing (PROPRIV), a structural growth driver (mobile money and data adoption), and a competitive dynamic (Africell’s challenge) that pressures efficiency improvements. Investors seeking exposure before the Unitel IPO can monitor the IPO calendar for timing signals, while those with existing Angolan equity positions should view the telecoms pipeline as the primary catalyst for BODIVA’s market deepening over the 2026–2028 horizon. The sector is not without risk — FX depreciation, regulatory intervention, and execution delays on the IPO timeline are all material — but the growth fundamentals and valuation entry points available in a market this underpenetrated are difficult to replicate elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.

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