The Perspectiva Trimestral extends the analytical horizon to 90 days, moving beyond the backward-looking data recaps of weekly and monthly publications into forward-looking scenario analysis. Published in the second half of January, April, July, and October, each edition aligns with the global institutional reporting cycle so that subscribers can integrate Angola-specific views into their quarterly investment-committee materials.
Forecasting Framework
Angola’s economic trajectory is dominated by a narrow set of high-impact variables that lend themselves to scenario modelling. The research team constructs each quarterly outlook around three interlocking drivers.
Oil price and production. Petroleum revenue funds approximately half of the Orcamento Geral do Estado (national budget) and generates the vast majority of foreign-exchange inflows. The base case for the current cycle assumes Brent crude in a $70-80 per barrel band, with the most recent spot near $74.50. Production volumes, governed by OPEC+ quota agreements and constrained by maturing deepwater fields, feed directly into fiscal and external-balance projections. Each outlook models three oil-price scenarios – base, upside ($85+), and downside (below $65) – and traces their implications through the fiscal accounts, the current account, the kwanza, and ultimately into BODIVA equity valuations and bond-yield trajectories.
BNA monetary policy path. The Banco Nacional de Angola sets the taxa basica de juro (policy rate), currently at 17.5%, through its Comite de Politica Monetaria (CPM). With inflation running at 15.7% year-on-year, the real policy rate is modestly positive but sensitive to food-price shocks and administered-price adjustments. The quarterly outlook models the BNA’s reaction function under each oil-price scenario, projecting whether the next 90 days are more likely to bring a hold, a cut, or – in a tail scenario – a hike. This rate-path projection anchors the fixed-income section’s yield-curve forecasts and is cross-referenced against BNA policy analysis in the economy section.
Fiscal execution and reform momentum. Angola’s GDP, estimated at $115.2 billion, is heavily influenced by government spending and public-investment flows. The quarterly outlook tracks budget execution against the approved Orcamento Geral do Estado, assesses the pace of privatisation under the Programa de Privatizacoes (PROPRIV), and evaluates whether reform milestones tied to multilateral engagements (IMF Article IV consultations, World Bank programme reviews) are on track. Reform slippage is treated as a risk factor that can widen sovereign credit spreads and pressure the kwanza independently of oil dynamics.
Report Structure
Each quarterly outlook follows a consistent format across six chapters.
Chapter 1 – Macro Scenario Table. A single-page matrix presenting the base, upside, and downside scenarios with explicit assumptions for oil price, production, BNA rate, inflation, kwanza range, and GDP growth. The current base case projects 1.9% GDP growth for 2025.
Chapter 2 – Economy. A detailed walk-through of the macro outlook under each scenario, covering GDP composition by sector, the trade balance (exports dominated by crude, imports by capital goods and food), and the debt sustainability trajectory. Angola’s sovereign ratings (S&P B-, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-) are stress-tested against the downside scenario to assess the probability of a rating action.
Chapter 3 – Fixed Income. Yield-curve projections for Obrigacoes do Tesouro de Taxa Nao Reajustavel (OTNR) and Obrigacoes do Tesouro Indexadas (OTX), incorporating the BNA rate-path forecast and fiscal-issuance assumptions. The section identifies relative-value opportunities across the curve and flags upcoming maturities that could create reinvestment pressure.
Chapter 4 – Equities. Fundamental outlook for the five BODIVA-listed companies, with updated valuation ranges. BAI (last near Kz 100,500) and BFA (near Kz 118,000) receive the most detailed treatment given their liquidity. The section models how each oil-price scenario flows through to bank earnings via the credit cycle, kwanza-denominated asset values, and treasury portfolios. BODIVA recorded 10,328 transactions in 2024, and the outlook assesses whether the coming quarter’s pipeline – including any new listings or block trades – could meaningfully shift that activity level.
Chapter 5 – Foreign Exchange. A 90-day kwanza forecast under each scenario, currently anchored at 914.60 AOA per US dollar. The section models BNA intervention capacity using published reserve data, estimates the FX pass-through to domestic prices, and identifies hedge-ratio recommendations for kwanza-exposed positions.
Chapter 6 – Risks and Catalysts. A ranked list of the top five upside and downside risks for the coming quarter, each assigned a subjective probability and an estimated impact magnitude. Past editions have flagged OPEC+ quota surprises, Chinese debt-service renegotiations, FATF grey-list developments, and snap elections as swing factors. The economic calendar dates for the quarter are embedded here to map catalysts to the timeline.
Methodology Notes
Scenario probabilities are assigned by the research team based on a combination of quantitative models (oil-price mean-reversion regressions, inflation-gap models, fiscal-reaction functions) and qualitative judgement informed by institutional contacts in Luanda, the BNA, and the multilateral community. The team discloses its track record: each new outlook includes a scorecard grading the prior quarter’s forecasts against actual outcomes, ensuring accountability and enabling subscribers to calibrate the signal value of the research over time.
Accessing the Quarterly Outlook
Each edition is published to the Latest Research feed and distributed to premium subscribers as a PDF with an accompanying Excel model. The model allows users to input their own oil-price and rate assumptions and generate customised scenario outputs. Free-tier users receive the executive summary and the risk-catalyst section.